Definitely, its going to come down to developers rolling out the software. Its kind of a chicken-egg thing right now. Devs wont support Windows 8 because its been off to a slow start. But its been off to a slow start partly because of the lack of support from developers. I expect this new paradigm shift will be a slow momentum building kind of thing - not an explosive runaway success out of the gate. Consumers will adopt fairly quickly as they begin to realize this is not an experiment that might fail with MS pulling the plug in a year. Business will drag their feet as long as possible.
Does Anyone Really Care About the Start Menu?
- Thread starter gglazer
- Start date
Oh, and this... Windows 8 lifts Microsoft's profit 19% - Apr. 18, 2013
mitchellvii
Well-Known Member
The answer to Windows 8 woes are simple and because MS seems as if they want to become a blackbox OS developer like Apple, I am surprised they have not followed their lead on this. Two OS's. One for desktop mouse and keyboard users and one for tablet users. In setup simply give US the choice of what WE prefer.
Windows 8 is like an arranged marriage, based more on what MS thinks is good for the kingdom as opposed to anyone falling in love. If MS really believes in Windows 8 and Modern UI, give users the option to opt out of it completely. Give us the power of no. Then maybe, just maybe users will be drawn to it organically and its popularity will grow.
When you look at Windows 8 licenses sold remember that many of those are to OEM's who never sold the computers they bought Windows 8 for. That 60 million licenses does not represent 60 million new users who love Windows 8, rather a lot of computer makers stuck with machines no one wants.
Right now MS is pushing on a rope and that never works. MS must learn to pull.
Windows 8 is like an arranged marriage, based more on what MS thinks is good for the kingdom as opposed to anyone falling in love. If MS really believes in Windows 8 and Modern UI, give users the option to opt out of it completely. Give us the power of no. Then maybe, just maybe users will be drawn to it organically and its popularity will grow.
When you look at Windows 8 licenses sold remember that many of those are to OEM's who never sold the computers they bought Windows 8 for. That 60 million licenses does not represent 60 million new users who love Windows 8, rather a lot of computer makers stuck with machines no one wants.
Right now MS is pushing on a rope and that never works. MS must learn to pull.
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J515OP
Super Moderator
Making a desktop only OS isn't going to sell any more PCs. Sorry but that is just as much of a losing proposition and will only require more resources from MS to make happen (splitting dedicated personnel to a new task). The problem is no one wants the machines not that no one wants the machines because of the OS on them. No sold machines means no distributed OS regardless of which OS that is.
Maybe MS should take a hint from you since you have it figured out. Extending your reasoning but thinking about where the growth and market that really matters is, MS should drop all Windows except Modern UI effective immediately. Cut off all support for all versions of Windows and focus their efforts entirely on the Modern UI and the tablets and smart phones that will run it since those make up the largest segment of devices being sold and future growth opportunity. Why put any more effort into anything Windows was before? Instead put all that energy into trying to dominate the future, which only Modern UI is suited for. Problem solved, Modern UI only from now on. You can opt out of future devices and stick with your unsupported Windows PC by exercising the "power of no" on any new device running Modern UI.
Maybe MS should take a hint from you since you have it figured out. Extending your reasoning but thinking about where the growth and market that really matters is, MS should drop all Windows except Modern UI effective immediately. Cut off all support for all versions of Windows and focus their efforts entirely on the Modern UI and the tablets and smart phones that will run it since those make up the largest segment of devices being sold and future growth opportunity. Why put any more effort into anything Windows was before? Instead put all that energy into trying to dominate the future, which only Modern UI is suited for. Problem solved, Modern UI only from now on. You can opt out of future devices and stick with your unsupported Windows PC by exercising the "power of no" on any new device running Modern UI.
mitchellvii
Well-Known Member
Good lord. You cannot be serious. Modern UI is THE FUTURE? Modern UI with it's limited options, dead ends and big pretty uselessly animated tiles is THE FUTURE? Have you spoken to anyone in charge of enterprise computing lately (I speak with them every day). They think Modern UI is a childish JOKE. Do you really believe Windows 8 can succeed without widespread enterprise acceptance? 99% of enterprises don't even have touch screens and have no plans to get them. If you want Fortune 1000 companies to spend millions retraining their people on a brand new OS it better be pretty damned compelling. For a business user what is compelling about Modern UI? It's confusing. Everything takes extra steps and it is full of dead ends. It works best in a medium enterprise customers don't even have!
If animated tiles were the answer Windows Phone have been a hit. Is Windows Phone a hit? I don't think Sprint is even carrying any new Windows phones.
First of all, MS does not need to develop a completely different "desktop only" version. They simply need to give the user the option of making desktop the default (including a Start Button). You say that the DRAMATIC falloff in PC sales has NOTHING to do Windows 8? Funny that the two coincide almost perfectly. Of course PC sales are waning due to interest in tablets, but the lack of acceptance of Windows 8 Modern UI sure as hell didn't help. You think that a successful Windows 8 launch would not have revived PC sales at all? You can buy a perfectly serviceable Windows 8 PC today for under $500 and they can't even sell those to replace people's 3 year old machines?
As MS's supreme cheerleader and apologist in these forums, you seem to hold pretty much the same attitude they have - Modern UI is the future and if you don't like it then you just don't get it. What literally makes me fall on the floor laughing is the thought that MS believes "one-size-fits-all" is revolutionary. My god man. I don't go to Dick's Sporting Goods when I'm shopping for a suit and I don't go to Lord & Taylor for basketball shorts. One-size-fits-all is better suited to socks than software.
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J515OP
Super Moderator
Lol mitch you are one funny guy. Yes MS should throw all their weight behind Modern UI. Sure it isn't perfect now but imagine if they 100% dropped support for anything before Windows 8 and the dektop portion of Windows 8. Then they could really make Modern UI take off. It actually appears traditional Windows are the root cause of the decline of PCs. We can clearly see that after the release of Windows 7 in October of 2009 that PCs have gone into free fall. Windows 7 is actually destined for the history books as the destroyer of the desktop and the herald of a new age that could only be possible by showing that we must move to Modern UI. Windows 8 was released at -10%! Imagine how much better it would have done had it not carried a desktop or remotely resembled Windows 7! This is a serious problem indeed. I don't think I will get any "Windows" going forward unless it is Windows RT and they drop the desktop. Otherwise all Apple and Android because MS will die if they put any money or effort into an OS that is killing PCs.
Edit: It is also worth noting the appearance of the iPad with its iOS representing the future Modern UI must also adopt.
Edit: It is also worth noting the appearance of the iPad with its iOS representing the future Modern UI must also adopt.
Omni
Active Member
Well said. Microsoft is doing a great job I think. Microsoft has made some mistakes and they will make more; there only human, but what I am seeing so far I'm certain they will continue to be a huge player in the computer world.
mitchellvii
Well-Known Member
You really are truly remarkable. Let me explain how these things work:
When a new OS is announced, sales of hardware loaded with the old OS naturally slow because why not just wait and get the new OS for free with your new PC? Then MS announces if you buy a PC now you will upgrade to Windows 8 for free when it is released. That's where you see the little sales bump. Then the beta comes out and people hate it and the bump goes away. Then the final version comes out and they didn't fix anything people hated in the beta and sales die.
That is what is happening in that graph. You interpret it that sales of PC's were already dying when Windows 8 was released therefore there is no cause and effect, but the release of a new OS does not begin affecting the marketplace only on the day it releases. The effect begins from the moment the new OS is announced.
** Another reason for the falloff of PC sales is the fact we were in the middle of a terrible recession, not the introduction of the iPad.
Windows 8 was supposed to revive PC sales. Despite MS claims of selling 60 million licenses, it obviously did nothing of the sort to end users. Since tablets only make up about 2.5% of the market for Windows 8 this is a serious problem. If Windows 8 does not drive PC sales and current PC owners are not buying licenses, where will the revenue come from after initial OEM sales are done?
If MS has to rely solely upon touch device sales for their OS they are truly and profoundly screwed. Right now Surface has about 7.5% of the tablet market and this is after the early adopter rush. If PC's are dead can MS pay the bills with 7.5% of the tablet market? MS MUST change Windows 8 to revive the PC market or they are finished. They must win over enterprise users or they are finished.
Everything about Windows 8 is bad from a marketing standpoint. It takes more steps to do pretty much anything, it is non-intuitive, some of it's "coolest new features", like animated tiles are completely useless, and to fully appreciate it you have to buy the most expensive equipment.
Google bought Motorola and Microsoft created Windows 8. Two big companies full of smart people doing very stupid things.
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J515OP
Super Moderator
Mitch, there you go being funny again. Win 8 wasn't even announced until 2011 with the first pre-release coming in 9-2011. Looking at the chart PC sales were already tanking after Windows 7's release in Q4 of 2009. The chart picks up in Q1 2010. The trend by the point of Windows 8 is already very clear. Windows 8 was supposed to drive PC sales (if you believe some misguided reports) but the momentum of a truly poor performing Windows 7 was clearly too much for Windows 8 with desktop features to over come. With that big of a down slide ahead of even its announcement how could it?
Look how much worse Windows 7 left the market after it's "new release bump" (probably all those sales to OEMs hungry after Vista). The Y/Y growth went from 6% to almost nothing. Clearly the estimates in this chart were overly optimistic and the damage was very real and continuing as evidenced by the more recent chart above.
Tablets only make up 2.5% of what market? I see a 10.7% market share with only 20 million less tablets sold in 2012 than PCs.
Factor in smart phones and the PCs got creamed. Now look at the growth rates (double digits for tablets and negative for PCs) and well... Oh what were you saying about using desktop OSes to revive the PC market again?
Edit: Double digit growth for tablets now, triple digit extrapolated!
Look how much worse Windows 7 left the market after it's "new release bump" (probably all those sales to OEMs hungry after Vista). The Y/Y growth went from 6% to almost nothing. Clearly the estimates in this chart were overly optimistic and the damage was very real and continuing as evidenced by the more recent chart above.
Tablets only make up 2.5% of what market? I see a 10.7% market share with only 20 million less tablets sold in 2012 than PCs.
Factor in smart phones and the PCs got creamed. Now look at the growth rates (double digits for tablets and negative for PCs) and well... Oh what were you saying about using desktop OSes to revive the PC market again?
Edit: Double digit growth for tablets now, triple digit extrapolated!
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MS is ahead of the curve as far as design for UI: The Flattening of Design - NYTimes.com
J515OP
Super Moderator
Modern UI for the Modern MS! What is the reason for the downfall of the PC and the rise of the tablet/phone? The desktop, ditch it and any ability of any user to ever choose it again
Besides who wants or needs it with gesture control coming? I don't see a desktop here:
Desktop? I think not.
Windows NX-01A (approximate release date 2360)
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