Latest Quarter Numbers?

[SEANT]

The members here possess considerable tech savvy; though that still allows for differences of opinion. What say we put hard numbers to those opinions? What will the latest quarter numbers show?

My guess:
Surface RT – 2.5 million units.
Surface Pro – 2 million units.

The RT edging the Pro due to the deeper discounts.

 

[demandarin]

Crazy thing is regardless of numbers, Surface tablets hold the largest share percentage of tablets that have windows 8 on it.

Someone else made a good point yesterday. Even if Surface doesn't sell much, but forced other manufacturers to step their game up on quality and features. Those other win8 devices selling well are still a win for Microsoft. So they win either way. Whether their device sells well or other manufacturers taelts sell well with win8 on it.

 

[SEANT]

Crazy thing is regardless of numbers, Surface tablets hold the largest share percentage of tablets that have windows 8 on it.

Someone else made a good point yesterday. Even if Surface doesn't sell much, but forced other manufacturers to step their game up on quality and features. Those other win8 devices selling well are still a win for Microsoft. So they win either way. Whether their device sells well or other manufacturers taelts sell well with win8 on it.

True. Microsoft’s primary concern remains ecosystem expansion. Numbers on any one facet does not mean that much.

I guess the purpose of this post was to challenge member’s “Signal to Noise” processing abilities. Earlier this summer a web surfer could not swing a dead cat without knocking over some bloggers preconceived notion on how Microsoft missed the point. Perhaps I should say a dead cat’s length of CAT 5 cable – so as not to offend our feline loving brethren.

Similarly, I imagine, fans of Microsoft products are also capable of overt bias.

If we take it all in, filter out the noise, how does it translate to sales numbers?

Sent from the SurfaceForums.net app for Windows 8

 

[chrisleung]

I want to know the answer to this question too, as I'm building a case and it's important for me to know the number of potential customers.

I went through an exercise in mid-July to project Microsoft's sales figures. Here's what we know for sure:

As of Mid-March 2013 - 1.5 million Surface units sold
1.1 million RT (over 6 months of sales - Release Date Late-Oct 2012)
400k Pro (over 1 month of sales – Release Date Mid-Feb 2013)

Now also consider:
-Recent dramatic price drops for both the RT and the Surface
-Surface Pros were just becoming available worldwide (UK: May 2013, Japan: June 2013)

A very conservative estimate is that there are at LEAST 3 million Surface owners worldwide and considering the additional price drops and releases in other countries, I would guess the number is easily between 4-5 million units at this point, which would match your guess.

But as for the breakdown between Pro and RT, this is difficult.
-I would agree with you that there are absolutely more RT's out there than Surface Pros
-I think the gap between RT and Pro units is larger than 500,000. In my opinion, the RT device has a larger potential market as it is more competitive in pricing and features than the Pro device.

Would love to hear what other people think.

 

[SEANT]

I’m mildly disappointed. I thought this thread would elicit more responses. Granted, the topic was somewhat baiting – and posted by a relative newcomer. Still, I expected more predictions.

After all, this site does have its share of strong, and diametrically opposed POVs. Is there no one willing to call someone else out?

A definitive prediction does document our prowess – certainly a “putting money where our mouth is” scenario given the possibility of “epic fail”. Avoiding a hard stance, though, seems rather weenie. A hard stance will document confidence, if nothing else.

 

[chrisleung]

Hey Seant, I'm curious -- what's your reason for asking this question?

 

[SEANT]

I, too, am investing resources into the platform, the WinRT part specifically, so the total numbers are of interest.

Due diligence, I guess, compelled me to consume as much media coverage on all the platform/devices as possible. Consequently, I’ve seen numerous clashes between opposing points of view.

Obviously, this is not a new phenomenon. Brand loyalty wars have a rich tradition. This newest iOS/Android/WinRT argument seems to produce more than the usual enthusiasm, though. There almost seems to be panic/urgency to bash the other platforms. I guess sweeping comments “get real work done”, “Windows RT sucks” come easily when made anonymously. Would the opinions be more sincere if some amount of reputation were at stake?

Now, I’m probably biased – given my own inclination – and to really expose my bias, I’ve never even used Android or iOS. I don’t know how good they are or, if their proponents can be believed, how bad Windows RT is. To me, RT seems pretty good. I think it will prevail. If I had to make a long term prediction, I’d say it could have 15% of new tablet sales by this time next year. I could be dreaming.