OPINION: 40 Million Wins for Windows Surface, Phone, and PCs

[archapacman]

You remember seeing this video? It is the interview with Steve Jobs and Bill Gates.

[video=youtube;wuhHIqJyjY0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuhHIqJyjY0&feature=relmfu[/video]

I remember watching this video four years ago, and I could not help but feel sorry for Steve Jobs. The interviewers seem to be "Microsoft Fanbois" and I can already see them doubting Steve Job's vision of the "Post-PC era." For example, at around 5:10 in the video, the interviewer told Steve Jobs that he would be in "trouble" for using the term "Post-PC." He meant it as a joke, but you can see how Microsoft fanboi-like he was in another instance, where he asked Steve Jobs whether or not PC includes only Windows or it also includes Macs.

Well look at us now:

1) The PC is definitely dying, although not dead yet (comeback soon?).
2) People have adopted more apple mobile devices than Windows within the last few years
3) Microsoft is now being shunned, hated, and most detrimentally, doubted for their abilities

Steve Jobs was right even though he was laughed at and highly doubted. The Post-PC era came, and Apple was ready.

Today, I just checked out this news article, Windows 8 Sells 40 Million Licenses in First Month which could be taken as a surprise or not, depending on how you see the situation (low cost of windows 8, holiday season shopping, etc.).

You know what I see in this article? I see a vision that Microsoft have. One that is being laughed at across every media. One that people highly doubt due to lack of dominance of Microsoft within the past years - their bleeding stocks, their late-comings, their "viruses", and their "uncoolness."

That vision is to unify a platform. 40 millions Windows 8 licenses? That is a win not only for PCs, but for your Surface tablets, Windows 8 tablets, and Windows Phone. Because with a unify platform, if one unit prosper, all other units get additional development.

A unify platform to tackle on more features, more troubles, and more viruses? Microsoft is bold like that.

 

[Hans]

Do you really think the PC is dying? I think all those 9.7" and 7.8" iPods and their Android counterparts are just an interim solution until the hardware is ready to support real PC functionality in a light and small form factor. PC tablets that don't heat up, boot up instantly, with a finger friendly and easy to use interface, and have a long battery life. We are almost there, entering the post tablet world, the world of the tablet PC. The current crop of tablet will have to drop to the price range of current e-readers (i.e. below $250.-) in order to stay alive for those who are just looking for the cheapest gadget available to use as a reader/video/music player.

 

[Afy]

The largest issue I currently see with Windows 8 is that the software is way ahead of any hardware available. I have thus far refrained from acquiring a Windows 8 Pro laptop because there is nothing compelling in the market.

The closest I have seen to an appealing laptop is the Sony convertible. But its a Sony hence a non starter. Nothing else in the market thus far meets my requirements. I want an i7 with at least 8 GB of ram, a dedicated graphics card, at least a 1080 screen with touch, SSD and I dont care how long the battery lasts. A 15.6 or larger screen would be nice as well.

 

[archapacman]

I believe the PC is dying and might, just might make a comeback. Whether it does or not, does not matter, because Windows, the operating system for phones, tablets, AND PC is doing well.

It could either be a PC + Era or a Post-PC era. I declared the Windows RT system to be a post-PC device, not a PC Plus. As Afy said, so far, PC solution for PC + Era have not been that great. From the news I have read, Windows 8 PC sales are still sluggish.

Here is how I see things:
Windows 8 is response to Post PC Era. If Windows 8 PC sells well, we will enter PC + Era.

If however, people are substituting in Windows RT, iOS, Android, phones, tablets for their PCs, the Post PC Era is still strong and will eventually dominate and become the new "PC era."

 

[J515OP]

Yep, it really depends on how you define "PC" (personal computer). historically this term includes desktops and laptops. The only reason phones and tablets don't get included in this group is because of limited functionality either through the OS or hardware. Because of these limitations a traditional PC was required either to accomplish the tasks that only PCs could do or to literally be a hub that had to be connected to by the additional device to allow utilization of the device (iTunes on a PC to get music to an iPod for example, since there is no way to get music directly onto an iPod without a PC). The last example would be PC+.

We are quickly reaching a point that tablets and phones will be indistinguishable in their functionality from traditional PCs and connect via the cloud so that connection to a PC hub is no longer required. I don't think this is a post PC era though because it implies that we will all use phones or tablets that are different in functionality from PCs for the tasks that traditional PCs have been used for. Rather than losing PCs we have just developed more mobile PCs, think of them as ultra-ultra books. Personal computing isn't gong away but is moving to include desktops, laptops, ultrabooks/netbooks (highly portable laptops), tablets and phones.

This is indeed a shift from the PC+ era we are currently in, to the "new PC" era and not a post PC era which would some how drop personal computing from the equation (mainframe computing or possible invisible computing, where you don't really use a computer they just do things for you like Google Now or the computers in your car).

 

[Hans]

Well, when this "post-PC era" term was coined, Steve Jobs basically meant to say that devices that can perform a full range of computing devices will be replaced by "dumbed down" devices like the ipad -- devices with an extremely simple interface, with only one program on screen at a time, with greatly reduced functionality (to avoid complexity, potential problems, and get away with using simpler hardware) --- would rule the world of computing.

My point is that such early version consumption tablets are just place holders until the hardware and user interfaces of more capable devices (offering real PC functionality) have caught up.

 

[J515OP]

Well, when this "post-PC era" term was coined, Steve Jobs basically meant to say that devices that can perform a full range of computing devices will be replaced by "dumbed down" devices like the ipad -- devices with an extremely simple interface, with only one program on screen at a time, with greatly reduced functionality (to avoid complexity, potential problems, and get away with using simpler hardware) --- would rule the world of computing.

My point is that such early version consumption tablets are just place holders until the hardware and user interfaces of more capable devices (offering real PC functionality) have caught up.

So if you think about it you can never really have a post pc era under those circumstances. If you have dumbed down devices then you will never get rid of PCs that are necessary for the other tasks including acting as hubs for the dumbed down devices. This would be a PC+ era. At some point the devices are no longer dumbed down put fully functional ultra portable PCs. Already we are demanding more from the "simple" devices, so you have moved back from the PC+ era into a new PC era (where the PCs happen to be ultra portable).

I can't see any circumstance in which dumbed down devices effectively replace PCs on a mass scale in any near time frame. At best you get a PC+ era where you have PCs + simple devices. At some point when those devices become not so simple (as all early technology has proven to become faster and more capable with time) you have entered into a new PC era. So there is a PC - PC+ continuum we may slide back and forth on but post PC would be quite unique and revolutionary.

When we have Star-trek type computers that are omnipresent, capable of being interacted with through voice, touch and supplemental devices (tablets, com badges and tricorders) then we will be in a post PC era. It is hard to see that happening until desktops, laptops and current tablets have nearly disappeared from everyday life and we simply have access devices, com devices (google glass?), small phone like tablets (tricorders?) and tablets that aren't much more than screens ("on display number one") accessing central computers.

 

[R0bR]

The issue is that a majority of consumers browse the web, use email and socialize. When they are not doing that they may be using Office for something. In the past your choice was to buy a desktop or laptop, but in the past few years your basic PCs come with multi core CPUs and 8GB Ram and big storage etc. That is a lot of power that the average consumer doesn't need, meaning they will not need to upgrade their PCs every few years to improve performance. Enter Smartphones and tablets and now the majority of those consumers can do what they did on their desktops with instant on and always available devices. Now lets add Windows 8 to the picture which runs better on lower spec'd systems and again reduces the need to upgrade hardware. Consumers can now buy the right tool for the job, why buy a full desktop when a tablet will do. Those that require a desktop will still buy a desktop. Analysts need to stop separating desktops from laptops and tablets, where sales drop in one area it's made up in others.

 

[Hans]

iOS and Android tablets at US$ 100-200 will have a place as a second or third device. No way a capable PC tablet could ever be that cheap, and at those prices they are in the impulse buying range already. For the sofa, for the kids, whatever. Just like e-ink devices, at $70.- a lot of people don't think twice.